Friday, April 23, 2010

Redux: What is ABCT in a Nutshell?



In a nutshell the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) is an explanation of the causes of economic boom and bust cycles that are born of interventions by the monetary authority in credit markets. The monetary authority sets interest rates below their market value, thus causing the money supply to increase. This inflationary increase in the supply of loanable funds encourages banks to begin making loans on an increased scale. This causes credit to expand as rates are lowered beyond where they were perceived by market actors prior to the intervention. Furthermore this expansion pushes credit beyond the limits of loanable funds that are held in savings.
Subsequent to this a distortion occurs in the structure of production and prices. This distortion in turn sends false price signals to market actors who will participate in an artificial boom, unless they realize that credit is being pushed beyond the amount of loanable funds available. Entrepreneurs begin to invest in capital projects that had not been profitable prior to the expansion of credit. Prices begin to rise in the capital and stock markets, and a wide array of market participants react accordingly. Eventually these increases will be seen in retail and consumer prices.
During the boom firms will begin to show accounting profits. Unbeknownst to investors and entrepreneurs, these profits are artificially higher than their real values. This signal will increase the demand for capital and lengthen its structure, and drive investors and entrepreneurs to continue to invest with artificial credit. Increases in demand will occur first in the earlier stages of production, the capital goods sector, and then in the late stages, the retail and consumption stages. As demand increases, capital projects that were being undertaken prior to the boom will be abandoned for new ventures that appear to be profitable to entrepreneurs and investors.
Due the increased demand labor markets will experience an expansion as more employees are thought to be needed. New hires will occur across the stages of production.  The increase in the demand for labor will first occur in the early stages, and then the later stages. Unemployment will decrease significantly, and workers will apply parts of their income to capitalize on the promise of the boom.
Eventually the credit expansion slows or stops. Market participants will come to realize that they have received bad signals and information, and that there is no backing to the credit that caused the artificial boom. Realizing that they have acted on false information, their investments during the boom are in fact malinvestments. These malinvestments will need to be cleared from the market place. This process can be severe but also short, assuming there are no further interventions from the monetary or fiscal authorities.
If further intervention occurs, malinvestments will be prevented from clearing the market. Further intervention by monetary and fiscal authorities can extend the life of the bust beyond what it could have been had there been no interference. The bust can result in recession, panic, credit crunch, and depression. One possibility of further intervention is that the monetary authorities can continue to inflate and expand credit. This will be an attempt to perpetuate the life of the boom, or to begin a recovery. An action such as this might induce banks to continue to lend and entrepreneurs to make malinvestments. But the reality will be that nothing has changed. The recovery boom is also built on faulty price signals, and will not be sustainable. This will create a new crop of malinvestments that will need to be cleared out of the markets.
Upon the realization that their investments are in fact malinvestments, entrepreneurs and investors will seek to get rid of them. They will begin to see significant losses in their profits and revenues. These entrepreneurs will cease channeling funds to projects that appeared to be profitable in the boom. In turn they will attempt to seek out assets with real value. As the demand for loanable funds decreases borrowers will look to pay off their loans as fast as possible. This decrease in demand will begin to have a profound effect on the banks that made the faulty loans. As this process continues banking losses will begin to increase significantly. They may also experience solvency issues due to the fact that they will not have real assets to back up the expansion of credit.
The bust will start to have considerable impact on the market participants who sought to take advantage of the boom. Entrepreneurs, investors, and workers alike will begin to feel the damaging effects of the bust, which can be sudden and severe. The entrepreneurs that accumulated heavy losses during the bust will look to reduce as many costs as possible. One of the most probable places to begin to roll back costs is the labor markets. Layoffs and cuts will occur in the early stages of production, that is, the capital goods sectors. Eventually this will occur in the late stages of production, specifically in the retail and consumer markets. Unemployment will increase, and there will be a credit crunch!
The ABCT is easy to explain with layman’s analogies. The analogy that seems most appropriate, and is my own personal favorite, is the hangover. Imagine you are a college student who is about to hit the town on a Friday night with your school buddies. You start drinking by sharing a six-pack in your room or apartment to loosen up. You gather up your cash, slap on some Old Spice, and hit a keg party. The beer in the kegs is cheap, but cold (easy money). You put three bucks in the contribution jar, and fill and refill your plastic cups as much as possible. Now you have a nice buzz, and the party is on (the boom)! As time goes by, the keg begins to get light, and it is replaced. Then that one is consumed and begins to float. You and your buddies are not quite ready to hang it up, so it is off to the bars! You are low on cash but you have your credit card. You try to hit as many as you can, and connect with as many people as you can. It is turning out to be one hell of a night!
Eventually, your buddy comes up with the brilliant idea that you should supplement your beer binging with kamikaze shots. They taste smooth, and you get another round. You slam them and roar chants as you high five and scream “That’s what I’m talking about!” You are on fire, spinning, and begin to slur, but you are holding on. The bar closes and the bouncers clear the joint, but you and your friends are not done yet. It is now time for afterbars, but not before you stop at the local greasy spoon to fill up on the burgers and fries you think you need. As you make your way to afterbars, a buddy stops to vomit in the parking lot. He regains his bearing, and you drag him to the house for afterbars (attempting to extend the boom). Beer and liquor await you there (stimulus), but at this point you are stammering, stuttering, and stupid drunk (malinvestments becoming apparent)! You are wasted, to use the parlance of our times. You make it through about twenty minutes of “The Godfather” and you pass out on the couch (the bust sets in).
You wake up hours later with a headache that feels like an elephant stepping on your head. The light fills the room, and you are blinded by this unwelcome intrusion to your seeking of relief. You make your way over the passed out people to the bathroom, and unload your “malinvestments.” You think to go to the fridge and grab beer and start drinking again, because that is what worked on spring break in Panama City Beach. But you don’t. You let your “market clear.” It hurts, but it ends quicker than if you had continued to drink. Your “market clears” and you are back on your feet with a little ibuprofen and a lot of water!

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Learn About Money, the Errors of Keynes, Auto Bailouts, and Spread The Wealth!

I had the honor to attend an economics symposium at my alma mater, Univesity of Detroit Mercy, this weekend. Lawrence Reed of FEE spoke of money, its origins and its history. Mark Skousen, author of several instructive volumes on economics, gave a great talk about the errors of Keynes. Manny Lopez, auto editor of the Detroit News, spoke of the current situation in the auto industry. Lastly, Dave Breuhan was on hand to discuss his new book, Spread The Wealth. This book is filed with concise explanations of sound economic theory, as well as wonderful and challenging insight into the problems we face in the current crisis.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

What do you think is the most distinctive element or aspect of the Austrian school of economics?


I think that the most distinctive characteristic of the Austrian School is that is is grounded in reality, logic, subjectivism, and reason. Furthermore the subjective theory of value separates the Austrian School from others schools of economic thought. Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, Austrian Economics pursues the truth, and analyzes problems seeking to determine their cause


One final thought. I love the fact that the Austrian School traces its roots to Aristotle, Saint Thomas Aquinas, and the Jesuit and Dominican scholastics of the School of Salamanca. 

Do you think "Fear the Boom and Bust" accurately portrays the Austrian Business Cycle Theory?

“Fear the Boom and Bust” video is about as accurate an explanation of ABCT as you could expect in a few minutes of hip-hop. It gives a concise thumbnail sketch of the key points of the respective Keynesian and Hayekian views of the causes and effects of the business cycle. The entertainment aspect and the quality of the poetry is sound, and it sticks in your head. My kids run around the house singing it, and, in spite of their very young ages (6, 4, 3 and 17 months), are asking me about Keynes and Hayek. Many colleagues and clients have also seen the video and this has yielded several opportunities to convert Keynesians into Austrians. The most amazing thing is that over a million people have viewed the video, and now a whole new bloc of individuals is starting to challenge the Keynesian dogmas that distort the market economy. The creators of this video have created an updated and innovative way to convey the ideas of ABCT. 


The Legacy of Frederic Bastiat

The Atlas Foundation for Economic Research has taken up yet another lofty initiative in the cause of economic liberty. Atlas has introduced a site that is designed to bring the legacy and teachings of Frederic Bastiat. On this page there are several links to resources on Bastiat in many languages. 




From the Atlas Bastiat page: 


"Bastiat showed that respect for property and free exchange is the foundation of freedom, prosperity, social progress, and peace – at home and abroad. Our property is always at risk from thieves. We lock our doors and employ police to protect us from common thieves, but protection from the biggest thieves - those who use the law to plunder - is much more difficult."




This video is a take on Bastiat's most enduring economic contribution: The Fallacy of the Broken Window!


Disastrous Economic Fallacies from Atlas Global Initiative on Vimeo.

Is There An Austrian Investment Theory?

This question was posted on a class discussion board. Essentially a student was asking if there were nay investment theories or disciplines that jive with Austrian Economics. My reply is as follows: 


Austrians might want to take a hard look at the value style of investing, a la Benjamin Graham.

Chris Leithner has suggested that Value Investors and Austrian economists share a great deal of common ground. He wrote a great paper on it entitled "Benjamin Graham Meet Ludwig von Mises. You can read it here: 
http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Leithner.pdf

You can learn more about the style on Leithner's site, which is loaded with Mises quotes.
http://www.leithner.com.au/

I would recommend reading Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor." 
http://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Book-Practical-Counsel/dp/0060155477

I would also recommend "The Art of Contrary Thinking" by Humphrey B. Neill. This is a priceless resource for maintaining a mindset that runs counter to the herd. It is an excellent tool, and a wonderful compliment to Austrian econ. Human action is a dominant theme. Furthermore, the book is dedicated to "Contrarians and Libertarians Everywhere, May Their Numbers Grow!"
You can check it out on Google Books: 
http://bit.ly/cqBpcr

What is ABCT in a Nutshell?

This question was posted in a reading discussion board. "What it the Austrian Business Cycle Theory in a Nutshell?"


My reply: 



In a nutshell Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) is an explanation of the causes of market boom and bust cycles whose ultimate cause by interventions from the monetary authority. Tinkered interest rates are set below their market value, thus causing the money supply to increase and credit to expand beyond where they are perceived by market actors. This distortion in turn sends false price signals to market actors who participate in the subsequent artificial boom. Prices begin to rise in the capital and stock markets, and various markets react accordingly. An example might be the labor markets expanding because more employees are thought to be needed. Eventually the credit expansion slows or stops and market participants realize that they have received bad signals and information. Realizing that they have acted on false information, their investments are actually malinvestments which need to be cleared from the market place. This process can be severe but short, assuming there are no further interventions from the monetary or fiscal authorities. Further intervention can prevent the malinvestments from clearing, thus extending the life of the bust beyond what it could have been with no interventions. The bust can result in recession, panic, credit crunch, and depression. 

Mises Academy

The next stop on the journey is Mises Academy. I have begun studying the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) with several other economists. Our professor is Dr. Robert Murphy, author of The Politically Incorrect Guide To Capitalism, and the study guides to Mises's Human Action, and Rothbard's Man, Economy, and State


From the course description: 



"In this introductory economics course, Dr. Murphy will guide students through an exploration of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (the theory that enabled Ludwig von Mises and F.A. Hayek to predict the Great Depression and Peter Schiff and others to predict the current economic crisis), covering the fundamentals of Austrian Economics along the way. This approach combines the careful conceptual bricklaying of an introductory course with the excitement of a real-world applications course.
The course will integrate video conferenced lectures, live chat, forum discussions, online readings, video, audio, slideshows, written assignments and more. It is designed for both students and financial professionals, to provide a detailed look at all the moving parts of the Austrian theory, which traces the origin of cycles to manipulation of the money supply and the credit markets by the central bank. It shows how it is impossible to understand the bust without first understanding the distorted production structure that occurs during an artificial boom.
Understanding the Business Cycle considers both domestic and international implications, contrasts the Austrian theory with alternative theories, takes on common objections in the press and economic literature, and proposes reforms to eliminate cycles in the future. Particular focus on the current economic crisis comes at the end of the course."

QE3 Is Here!

Move over QE2, QE3 is here! The markets are euphoric for now.